diff --git a/deploy/dsync.py b/deploy/dsync.py
index a04c100..8f6732d 100644
--- a/deploy/dsync.py
+++ b/deploy/dsync.py
@@ -303,7 +303,18 @@ def cmd_import(pkg_file, dry_run=False):
                 stats["org_skipped"] += 1
                 continue
             if dry_run:
-                n_i += 1
+                # 预演也查存在性，给出准确的新增/更新预估
+                ex = False
+                if pk:
+                    where = " AND ".join("`%s`=%%s" % c for c in pk)
+                    with conn.cursor() as cur:
+                        cur.execute("SELECT 1 FROM `%s` WHERE %s LIMIT 1" % (tbl, where),
+                                    tuple(str(row.get(c, "")) for c in pk))
+                        ex = cur.fetchone() is not None
+                if ex:
+                    n_u += 1
+                else:
+                    n_i += 1
                 continue
             res = upsert_row(conn, tbl, pk, row, tcols)
             stats[res if res in stats else "skipped"] += 1